Open Questions
Some questions are worth keeping open. This page collects the ones this site has not answered yet — each one came out of an article here, and each is still an honest “I don’t know”. Add evidence, disagree, or propose a sharper version in the community.
Does keeping a prediction journal actually improve calibration — or does it just record overconfidence?
From Why Keep a Prediction Journal?
What would settle it: Score a full year of logged forecasts and compare the average Brier score with predictions you made but never wrote down.
Can a community stay small on purpose, or does every small community quietly drift back into a feed?
From How to Keep a Community Small on Purpose
What would settle it: Track member count, post count and reply depth for six months, then see whether growth followed the rules or the rules followed growth.
Is boredom a cost of slow thinking, or is it the mechanism that makes slow thinking work?
From Why Boredom Is Good for Your Brain
What would settle it: Compare idea output during weeks with scheduled empty time against weeks without it — same person, same workload.
Do good questions really matter more than answers — and is there any way to measure that?
From Why Good Questions Matter More Than Answers
What would settle it: Count how many replies a thread generates when it opens with a question versus a conclusion, holding topic and author constant.
Does writing something down change what you believe, or only what you can recall?
From Why Writing Things Down Changes How You Think
What would settle it: Ask people to re-state a belief from memory six weeks after writing it down, and compare drift with a group that never wrote.
When does a digital garden turn back into a content feed, and can you notice it before it happens?
From Why a Digital Garden Beats a Content Feed
What would settle it: Watch whether new notes link back to old ones. A garden grows edges; a feed only grows rows.
A question here is not a promise to answer it. It is a claim that the question is worth the trouble. If you would rather score a forecast than ask a question, the Brier Calculator takes three questions. To start your own, use Write.