Journal
Long-form thoughts,
kept on record.
Articles from the community and the maker. Official posts are marked — everything else is written by members like you.
4 open · 0 resolved of 4 predictions
7 Habits of Superforecasters: A Field Guide
Seven habits. That is roughly all that separates a superforecaster from a well-read guesser. In a decade of forecasting tournaments,…
Hindsight bias: the future looks obvious in the rear-view mirror
Everything looks obvious after the fact. That is hindsight bias in one line — and it is the quietest way…
How to write a prediction that can be proven wrong
A prediction you cannot be proven wrong about is not a prediction. It is a position. Here is the checklist…
Brier for beginners: one number, one formula, no flattery
A Brier score is the simplest honest way to grade a forecast. It answers one question: how far were your…
A worked example: one prediction, one number, one date
Most prediction advice is abstract. This is a worked example, end to end, with the reasoning shown. The claim Sony…
Why You Should Write Down Your Predictions
Most people make predictions every day without noticing. Will it rain this afternoon? Will this project finish on time? Will…
How to Make Better Predictions About the Future
Everyone predicts the future constantly — which project will succeed, what the market will do, whether an idea will catch…
Why Keep a Prediction Journal? A Practical Guide to Thinking Clearly
Why Keep a Prediction Journal? A Practical Guide to Thinking Clearly — Weiann Weekly Most of us treat our own…